Assessing and decoupling ecosystem services evolution in karst areas: A multi-model approach to support land...

Incorporating Ecosystem Service Value (ESV) into land use planning provides a fresh perspective for informed land management decisions. ESV, influenced by socio-economic and natural factors, has complex driving mechanisms, particularly in China's southwestern karst regions. Studying mediating variables helps elucidate these mechanisms. Further research into ecosystem services interactions and effective land use policies in karst areas is needed. This study evaluates the ESV of Guizhou Province, located in southern China's karst region, using the benefit transfer approach. Combining the Guizhou Provincial Land Use Planning Outline (2006-2020) with the multi-objective programming (MOP) model optimized by genetic algorithm and the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model, four future development scenarios were designed. The response of ESV to land use and land cover (LULC) changes at the county scale under four different development scenarios from 2000 to 2020 and in the future was analyzed. A partial least squares structural equation model (PLS-SEM) was used to decouple the driving mechanism affecting ESV. The results show that over the past two decades, with the implementation of various ecological restoration projects, the total ESV has increased. The ESV for natural development scenarios, ecological conservation scenarios, economic development scenarios, and sustainable development scenarios are CNY 238.278 billion, CNY 400.514 billion, CNY 283.201 billion, and CNY 323.615 billion, respectively. The direct impacts of karst surface characteristic factors (KSCF), meteorological factors (MF), socio-economic factors (SEF) and transportation location factors (TLF) on ESV are positive (0.098), negative (-0.098), positive (0.336), and positive (0.109) respectively. The total effect of KSCF on ESV through influencing socio-economic factors and LULC is (-0.738), with SEF playing a complete mediating role. MF indirectly affect ESV by influencing LULC, with LULC playing a complete mediating role in this process. The PLS-SEM model shows that under the dominant position of LULC, the interaction between natural environmental factors and socio-economic factors on ESV is very complex. This study offers valuable insights that can guide managers in this region, as well as in other karst regions globally, in the development of sustainable land use policies.