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Hindsight bias leads you to believe that the event you just experienced was predictable, even though it really wasn’t. In other words, you knew all along that things would turn out the way they did. Can you relate this to the phrase "Hindsight is 20/20" now? 
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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jul 9, 2025

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Intermediate science knowledge predicts overconfidence.

Carmen Sanchez1, David Dunning2

  • 1University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Champaign, IL, USA.

Trends in Cognitive Sciences
|November 29, 2023
PubMed
Summary

Science overconfidence is highest among individuals with intermediate knowledge. This group also exhibits the most negative attitudes toward scientists, according to new research on overconfidence measurement.

Keywords:
Dunning–Kruger effectbeginner’s bubbleoverconfidencescientists

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Area of Science:

  • Psychology
  • Science Communication
  • Epistemology

Background:

  • Overconfidence in scientific knowledge can impact public trust and engagement.
  • Understanding the relationship between knowledge levels and attitudes toward science is crucial.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the relationship between levels of scientific knowledge and overconfidence.
  • To examine how overconfidence and knowledge levels correlate with attitudes toward scientists.
  • To introduce a novel measure for assessing science overconfidence.

Main Methods:

  • Participants' levels of scientific knowledge were assessed.
  • A new overconfidence measure was employed, focusing on the propensity to provide incorrect answers rather than stating uncertainty.
  • Attitudes toward scientists were surveyed.

Main Results:

  • Science overconfidence was found to peak at intermediate levels of knowledge.
  • Individuals with intermediate knowledge demonstrated the most negative attitudes toward scientists.
  • The novel overconfidence measure effectively captured the tendency to err rather than express ignorance.

Conclusions:

  • Intermediate knowledge levels are associated with the highest degree of science overconfidence.
  • Negative attitudes toward scientists are prevalent among those with intermediate knowledge.
  • The developed measure offers a more nuanced understanding of science overconfidence.