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Interpreting changes in life expectancy during temporary mortality shocks.

Patrick Heuveline¹

¹California Center for Population Research (CCPR), University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), Los Angeles, CA 90095.

Demographic Research

|November 30, 2023

Summary

Life expectancy changes during mortality shocks can be reinterpreted. A decline reflects age-standardized lifespan reduction in the affected death cohort, not just cohort longevity differences.

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Area of Science:

Demography
Mortality Science
Public Health

Background:

Life expectancy is a key mortality indicator, but its interpretation falters during sudden mortality shocks like pandemics.
Secular trends in life expectancy can obscure the impact of temporary mortality events.
Existing interpretations of life expectancy changes are insufficient for understanding mortality shocks.

Purpose of the Study:

To offer a new perspective on interpreting life expectancy changes during mortality shocks.
To clarify the meaning of life expectancy declines in the context of temporary, severe mortality events.
To provide a more accurate metric for assessing the impact of mortality shocks.

Main Methods:

Analysis of period life table models.
Comparison of synthetic cohort and stationary population models.
Reinterpretation of life expectancy differences based on population models.

Main Results:

Life expectancy differences are typically viewed as cohort longevity variations.
An alternative interpretation views life expectancy changes as premature mortality in a death cohort.
This alternative interpretation is more suitable for temporary mortality shocks.

Conclusions:

The decline in life expectancy during mortality shocks represents age-standardized reduction in lifespan for those dying.
This metric provides a clearer understanding of mortality shock impacts than traditional interpretations.
Accurate interpretation is crucial as life expectancy is widely used to report mortality trends.