Habitat-specific impacts of climate change on the trophic demand of a marine predator

Metabolic ecology predicts that ectotherm metabolic rates, and thus consumption rates, will increase with body size and temperature. Predicted climatic increases in temperature are likely to increase the consumption rates of ectothermic predators; however, the ecological impact of these increases will partly depend on whether prey productivity changes with temperature at a similar rate. Furthermore, total predator consumption and prey productivity will depend on species abundances that vary across habitat types. Here we combine energetics and biotelemetry to measure consumption rates in a critically endangered coral reef predator, the Nassau grouper (Epinephelus striatus), in The Bahamas. We estimate that, at present, the Nassau grouper needs to consume 2.2% ± 1.0% body weight day^-1 , but this could increase up to 24% with a predicted 3.1°C increase in ocean temperature by the end of the century. We then used surveys of prey communities in two major reef habitat types (Orbicella reef and Gorgonian plain), to predict the proportion of prey productivity consumed by grouper and how this varied by habitat with changing climates. We found that at present, the predicted proportion of prey productivity consumed by Nassau grouper decreased with increasing prey productivity and averaged 1.2% across all habitats, with a greater proportion of prey productivity consumed (maximum of 5%) in Gorgonian plain habitats. However, because temperature increases consumption rates faster than prey productivity, the proportion of prey productivity consumed in a Gorgonian plain habitat could increase up to 24% under future climate change scenarios. Our results suggest that increasing ocean temperatures will lead to significant energetic challenges for the Nassau grouper because of differential impacts within reef food webs, but the magnitude of these impacts will probably vary across prey productivity gradients.