Prediction model for hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after hepatectomy: Machine learning-based development and
Rongqiang Liu1,2, Shinan Wu1,3, Hao Yuan Yu1
1Department of Hepatic Surgery and Liver Transplantation Center, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Heliyon
|November 30, 2023
Summary
A machine learning model using multilayer perceptron (MLP) can predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after surgery. Key factors include GGT, fibrinogen, and AST, enabling personalized treatment for high-risk patients.
Area of Science:
- Hepatocellular Carcinoma Research
- Machine Learning in Oncology
- Medical Predictive Modeling
Background:
- Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence post-hepatectomy poses a significant clinical challenge.
- Accurate prediction of recurrence risk is crucial for timely intervention and improved patient outcomes.
- Current methods may not fully capture the complexity of HCC recurrence factors.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a machine learning (ML) model for predicting HCC recurrence risk after hepatectomy.
- To identify key clinical variables associated with HCC recurrence.
- To create a user-friendly tool for personalized risk assessment.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of 315 HCC patients undergoing radical hepatectomy.
- Development of prediction models using six ML algorithms, including multilayer perceptron (MLP).
- Internal validation via 10-fold cross-validation and interpretation using Shapley additive explanations (SHAP).
Main Results:
- The MLP model demonstrated optimal predictive performance (AUC = 0.680) in the test set.
- Key predictors identified by SHAP include gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), fibrinogen, neutrophil count, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and total bilirubin (TB).
- An online web calculator was successfully developed based on the MLP model.
Conclusions:
- MLP is an effective model for predicting HCC recurrence risk post-hepatectomy.
- The developed model aids in identifying high-risk patients for early, personalized treatment strategies.
- This tool facilitates proactive management of HCC recurrence.
