A mutation rate model at the basepair resolution identifies the mutagenic effect of polymerase III transcription

De novo mutations occur at substantially different rates depending on genomic location, sequence context and DNA strand. The success of methods to estimate selection intensity, infer demographic history and map rare disease genes, depends strongly on assumptions about the local mutation rate. Here we present Roulette, a genome-wide mutation rate model at basepair resolution that incorporates known determinants of local mutation rate. Roulette is shown to be more accurate than existing models. We use Roulette to refine the estimates of population growth within Europe by incorporating the full range of human mutation rates. The analysis of significant deviations from the model predictions revealed a tenfold increase in mutation rate in nearly all genes transcribed by polymerase III (Pol III), suggesting a new mutagenic mechanism. We also detected an elevated mutation rate within transcription factor binding sites restricted to sites actively used in testis and residing in promoters.