A Bayesian Approach to Kinetic Modeling of Accelerated Stability Studies and Shelf Life Determination

Kinetic modeling of accelerated stability data serves an important purpose in the development of pharmaceutical products, providing support for shelf life claims and expediting the path to clinical implementation. In this context, a Bayesian kinetic modeling framework is considered, accommodating different types of nonlinear kinetics with temperature and humidity dependent rates of degradation and accounting for the humidity conditions within the packaging to predict the shelf life. In comparison to kinetic modeling based on nonlinear least-squares regression, the Bayesian approach allows for interpretable posterior inference, flexible error modeling and the opportunity to include prior information based on historical data or expert knowledge. While both frameworks perform comparably for high-quality data from well-designed studies, the Bayesian approach provides additional robustness when the data are sparse or of limited quality. This is illustrated by modeling accelerated stability data from two solid dosage forms and is further examined by means of artificial data subsets and simulated data.