Predicting Mortality Following Odontoid Fracture Fixation in Elderly Patients: CAADS-16 Score

Retrospective Review of a National Database.

By utilizing a national database, this study aims to quantify the predictors of 30-day mortality after odontoid fixation and guide appropriate management for patients in whom the choice between operative and non-operative management is unclear.

The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Database was queried using Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) codes and International Classification of Disease (ICD) codes to identify patients 60 or older who underwent surgical fixation of an odontoid fracture from 2005 to 2020. Risk factors for mortality significant in univariate and subsequent multivariate analysis were used to develop a scoring system to predict post-operative mortality.

608 patients were identified. Patients were split into a non-mortality 30 days post-op group, and into a mortality 30 days post-op group. The following risk factors were included in the scoring system: functional dependency, disseminated cancer, albumin less than 3.5, WBC count greater than 16 k, anterior surgical approach, and pre-op SIRS. Using a cutoff value of 2, the CAAD-16 score had a sensitivity and specificity of 82% and 81%, respectively. The ASA score, cutoff at 4, showed a sensitivity and specificity of 64% and 75% respectively.

This sample of 294 patients represents one of the largest samples of odontoid fracture fixation patients available in the literature and comes from a nationally representative database. We structure relevant risk factors into the CAADS-16 score, which has the potential to be a clinically relevant tool to prevent short-term postoperative mortality.