2-year survival estimation for decompensated cirrhosis patients of prognostic scoring systems

Prognostic models proposed for cirrhotic patients' survival have not been satisfactorily investigated in the Vietnam population, especially in the medium-term period.

In this prospective study, we enrolled a total of 904 patients admitted to Hepato-Gastroenterology Center, Bach Mai Hospital from December 2019 to November 2021 and calculated their CP, MELD, MELD-Na score, IMELD, Refit MELD, and Refit MELD-Na after 2-year follow-up to compare their survival prognosis.

The mean age of the patients was 53.8 ±10.8 years, and males constituted 91%. Compared with the surviving group, deceased patients had statistically significant lower albumin, higher INR, serum bilirubin, and creatinine levels with higher means of all prognostic scores. RefitMELD score had the highest AUC (0.768), followed by MELD (0.766), and the lowest belonged to RefitMELDNa (0.669).

In conclusion, deceased patients had significantly higher values of Child-Pugh score and all MELD-based scores than survival. RefitMELD is the most reliable scoring system to predict 2-year mortality in patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis.