Conversions between metabolically unhealthy and healthy obesity from midlife to late-life

Metabolically healthy obesity may be a transient phenotype, but studies with long follow-up, especially covering late-life, are lacking. We describe conversions between cross-categories of body mass index (BMI) and metabolic health in 786 Swedish twins with up to 27 years of follow-up, from midlife to late-life.

Metabolic health was defined as the absence of metabolic syndrome (MetS). We first visualized conversions between BMI-metabolic health phenotypes in 100 individuals with measurements available at ages 50-64, 65-79, and ≥80. Next, we modeled conversion in metabolic health status by BMI category in the full sample using Cox proportional hazards regression.

The proportion of individuals with MetS and with overweight or obesity increased with age. However, one-fifth maintained a metabolically healthy overweight or obesity across all three age categories. Among those metabolically healthy at baseline, 59% converted to MetS during follow-up. Conversions occurred 56% more often among individuals with metabolically healthy obesity, but not overweight, compared to normal weight. Among those with MetS at baseline, 60% regained metabolic health during follow-up, with no difference between BMI categories.

Conversions between metabolically healthy and unhealthy status occurred in both directions in all BMI categories. While conversions to MetS were more common among individuals with obesity, many individuals maintained or regained metabolic health during follow-up.