Machine learning-based prediction of medication refill adherence among first-time insulin users with type 2 diabetes

The prevalence of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) is projected to be 7 % in 2030. Despite its need for long-term diabetes care, the adherence rate of injectable medications such as insulin is around 60 %, lower than the acceptable threshold of 80 %. This study aims to create classification models to predict insulin adherence among adult T2DM naïve insulin users.

Clinical data were extracted from Taipei Medical University Clinical Research Database (TMUCRD) from January 1st, 2004 to December 30th, 2020. A patient was regarded as adherent if his/her medication possession ratio (MPR) was at least 80 %. Seven domains of predictors were created, including demographics, baseline medications, baseline comorbidities, baseline laboratory data, healthcare resource utilization, index insulins, and the concomitant non-insulin T2DM medications. We built two Xgboost models for internal and external testing respectively.

Using a cohort of 4134 patients from Taiwan, our model achieved the Area Under the curve of the Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) of the internal test was 0.782 and the AUROC of the external test was 0.771. the SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) value showed that the number of prescribed medications, the number of outpatient visits, and laboratory data were predictive of future insulin adherence.

This is the first study to predict adherence among adult naïve insulin users. The developed model is a potential clinical decision support tool to identify possible non-adherent patients for healthcare providers to design individualized education plans.