Brain Age Estimation on a Dementia Cohort Using FLAIR MRI Biomarkers

The prodromal stage of Alzheimer's disease presents an imperative intervention window. This work focuses on using brain age prediction models and biomarkers from FLAIR MR imaging to identify subjects who progress to Alzheimer's disease (converting mild cognitive impairment) or those who remain stable (stable mild cognitive impairment).

A machine learning model was trained to predict the age of normal control subjects on the basis of volume, intensity, and texture features from 3239 FLAIR MRI volumes. The brain age gap estimation (BrainAGE) was computed as the difference between the predicted and true age, and it was used as a biomarker for both cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses. Differences in biomarker means, slopes, and intercepts were investigated using ANOVA and Tukey post hoc test. Correlation analysis was performed between brain age gap estimation and established Alzheimer's disease indicators.

The brain age prediction model showed accurate results (mean absolute error = 2.46 years) when testing on held out normal control data. The computed BrainAGE metric showed significant differences between the stable mild cognitive impairment and converting mild cognitive impairment groups in cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses, most notably showing significant differences up to 4 years before conversion to Alzheimer's disease. A significant correlation was found between BrainAGE and previously established Alzheimer's disease conversion biomarkers.

The BrainAGE metric can allow clinicians to consider a single explainable value that summarizes all the biomarkers because it considers many dimensions of disease and can determine whether the subject has normal aging patterns or if he or she is trending into a high-risk category using a single value.