Does Abortion Liberalisation Accelerate Fertility Decline? A Worldwide Time-Series Analysis

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Public Health
• Sociology

Background:

• Global family planning is characterized by two major trends: declining fertility rates and increased abortion liberalization since World War II.
• The relationship between abortion liberalization and fertility decline remains a contentious topic in demographic research, with conflicting predictions.
• Existing literature presents opposing views: some suggest liberalized abortion access reduces fertility, while others propose a negligible impact.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantitatively analyze the global relationship between abortion policy liberalization and changes in total fertility rates.
• To address the unresolved question of whether abortion liberalization significantly affects fertility trends.
• To adjudicate between conflicting hypotheses in demographic literature regarding abortion policy and fertility.

Main Methods:

• Conducted a comprehensive global quantitative analysis using two-way fixed effects models.
• Utilized three distinct indicators of abortion policy liberalism from independent research teams.
• Analyzed data from 185 independent states spanning from 1970 to 2019.

Main Results:

• Fertility rates were significantly associated with average public education levels and the use of alternative contraceptive methods.
• Despite employing multiple model specifications and abortion policy indicators, abortion reforms did not demonstrate a robust association with total fertility changes.
• The study found no consistent, significant link between the liberalization of abortion policies and shifts in national fertility rates.

Conclusions:

• Abortion liberalization, as measured by policy changes, does not appear to be a robust determinant of global fertility rate trends.
• Factors such as education and contraceptive use show stronger associations with fertility changes than abortion policy reforms.
• The findings suggest that the impact of abortion liberalization on fertility may be negligible or highly context-dependent, contrary to some existing theories.