Vegetation-fire feedbacks increase subtropical wildfire risk in scrubland and reduce it in forests

Climate dictates wildfire activity around the world. But East and Southeast Asia are an apparent exception as fire-activity variation there is unrelated to climatic variables. In subtropical China, fire activity decreased by 80% between 2003 and 2020 amid increased fire risks globally. Here, we assessed the fire regime, vegetation structure, fuel flammability and their interactions across subtropical Hubei, China. We show that tree basal area (TBA) and fuel flammability explained 60% of fire-frequency variance. Fire frequency and fuel flammability, in turn, explained 90% of TBA variance. These results reveal a novel system of scrubland-forest stabilized by vegetation-fire feedbacks. Frequent fires promote the persistence of derelict scrubland through positive vegetation-fire feedbacks; in forest, vegetation-fire feedbacks are negative and suppress fire. Thus, we attribute the decrease in wildfire activity to reforestation programs that concurrently increase forest coverage and foster negative vegetation-fire feedbacks that suppress wildfire.