Network-based diagnostic probability estimation from resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging

Brain functional connectivity is a useful biomarker for diagnosing brain disorders. Connectivity is measured using resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI). Previous studies have used a sequential application of the graphical model for network estimation and machine learning to construct predictive formulas for determining outcomes (e.g., disease or health) from the estimated network. However, the resulting network had limited utility for diagnosis because it was estimated independent of the outcome. In this study, we proposed a regression method with scores from rs-fMRI based on supervised sparse hierarchical components analysis (SSHCA). SSHCA has a hierarchical structure that consists of a network model (block scores at the individual level) and a scoring model (super scores at the population level). A regression model, such as the multiple logistic regression model with super scores as the predictor, was used to estimate diagnostic probabilities. An advantage of the proposed method was that the outcome-related (supervised) network connections and multiple scores corresponding to the sub-network estimation were helpful for interpreting the results. Our results in the simulation study and application to real data show that it is possible to predict diseases with high accuracy using the constructed model.