Ecological forecasts for marine resource management during climate extremes

Area of Science:

• Marine ecology
• Climate change adaptation
• Ecological forecasting

Background:

• Societal challenges necessitate ecological forecasting amid novel environmental conditions.
• Current applications of ecological forecasts are limited, despite their potential for proactive decision-making during climate extremes.

Purpose of the Study:

• To demonstrate the adaptability of existing marine management tools for ecological forecasting.
• To assess the skill of ecological forecasts for predicting human-wildlife interactions.
• To evaluate the necessity of regional downscaling for ecological forecasting.

Main Methods:

• Utilized existing marine management tools configured for forecasting.
• Employed ocean temperature anomalies as a key predictor.
• Compared the skill of global forecasts with regionally downscaled forecasts.

Main Results:

• Achieved skillful ecological forecasts up to 12 months in advance.
• Demonstrated the capacity of forecasts to forewarn of human-wildlife interactions linked to climate extremes.
• Found that global forecasts can be more skillful than downscaled versions with fewer ensemble members.

Conclusions:

• Existing marine management tools can be effectively repurposed for ecological forecasting.
• Ecological forecasts offer valuable insights for mitigating human-wildlife conflicts driven by climate change.
• Regional downscaling is not always necessary and global forecasts can be sufficient, expanding forecasting accessibility worldwide.