Recurrent heart failure hospitalizations in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: an analysis of TOPCAT...

Recurrent heart failure hospitalization (HFH) is an important feature of the progression of heart failure (HF). In the Treatment of Preserved Cardiac Function Heart Failure with an Aldosterone Antagonist (TOPCAT) trial, we analysed risk factors for recurrent HFH events in HF patients with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and developed a risk prediction model for recurrent HFH.

This analysis focused on the subset of TOPCAT participants enrolled in the Americas (n = 1767). Recurrent HFH was defined as two or more hospitalizations for HF during the follow-up period. Lasso regression and multivariate logistic regression were used to screen the risk factors, and the risk prediction model of recurrent HFH was established. During a median follow-up period of 3.4 (95% confidence interval: 3.3-3.6) years, 72.2% (542 of 751 total hospitalizations) of HFH events occurred in 9.4% (n = 163) of patients with recurrent HFHs. Patients in the recurrent HFH group had higher cardiovascular mortality rate [6.2 per 100 patient-years (PY) vs. 3.8 per 100 PY, P = 0.016] and all-cause mortality rate (10.0 per 100 PY vs. 6.8 per 100 PY, P = 0.015) than those in the non-recurrent HFH group. The model consisting of nine predictors has moderate predictive power for recurrent HFH events in patients with HFpEF (AUC = 0.75, Brier score = 0.08). Decision curve analysis showed a net clinical benefit from the application of the prediction model.

In patients with HFpEF, the majority of HFHs occur in a small proportion of patients with repeated hospitalizations, who typically have more comorbidities and are at higher risk of death. The predictive model developed in this study helps to identify patients at high risk of recurrent HFH.