Reconciling patterns of long-term topographic growth with coseismic uplift by synchronous duplex thrusting

How long-term changes in surface topography relate to coseismic uplift is key to understanding the creation of high elevations along active mountain fronts, and remains hotly debated. Here we investigate this link by modeling the development of growth strata and the folding of river terraces above the Pishan duplex system in the southern Tarim Basin. We show that synchronous duplex thrusting of two neighboring faults with varying slip rates, associated with in-sequence propagation of the Pishan thrust system, is required to explain the presence of opposite-dipping panels of growth strata on the duplex front, and basinward migration of terrace fold crests. Importantly, this process of synchronous thrusting within the duplex reconciles the discrepancy between the deformation of terrace folds at the 10^-1-10⁰ million-year timescale and the maximum coseismic uplift of the 2015 M_w 6.4 Pishan earthquake on the frontal thrust. These results suggest that topography mismatch at different time scales can reflect the long-term kinematic evolution of fault systems. Thus, our study highlights the importance of characterizing complex subsurface fault kinematics for studying topographic growth, and motivates rethinking of the mountain building process in worldwide active fold-and-thrust belts, from short-term to long-term timescales.