Assessments of tumor mutational burden estimation by targeted panel sequencing: A comprehensive simulation analysis

Tumor mutational burden (TMB), when at a high level, is an emerging indicative factor of sensitivity to immune checkpoint inhibitors. Previous studies have shown that the more affordable and accurate targeted panels can be used to measure TMB as a substitute for whole exome sequencing (WES). However, additional processes, such as hotspot mutations exclusion and TMB adjustment, are usually required to deal with the effect of the limited panel sizes. A comprehensive investigation of the effective factors is needed for accurate TMB estimation by targeted panels. In this study, we quantitatively evaluated the variances of TMB values calculated by WES and targeted panels using 10,000 simulated targeted panels with panel sizes ranging from 0.2 to 3.1 million bases. With The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) cancer samples and mutation profiles, we fixed regressions on WES-TMBs and panel-TMBs to assess the performance of a given targeted panel. Panel size was found as one of the major effective factors of TMB estimation. Meanwhile, by investigating the well-performing small panels that reported TMB values similar to those of WES, we demonstrated the evidence of the cancer type-specific impacts of genes on TMB estimation and identified high-impact gene sets for different cancer types based on the TCGA data. This study revealed the quantitative correlations between TMB variance and panel size, and the potential impacts of individual genes on TMB estimation. Our results suggested that for cancer patients diagnosed using targeted panels, it would be highly beneficial to have the capability to directly measure TMB from the targeted sequencing data. This would greatly assist in making decisions regarding the use of immunotherapies.