Spatial variation and predictors of missing birth preparedness and complication readiness (BPCR) messages in Ethiopia

The Birth Preparedness and Complication Readiness (BPCR) message is one of the prenatal care packages targeted at reducing maternal and neonatal mortality by avoiding unnecessary delays during labor and delivery. There is limited evidence in Ethiopia that has looked at the spatial variation of missing BPCR messages and potential predictors. Hence, this study aimed to identify spatial predictors missing BPCR messages at the national level.

The study was based on analysis of 2016 Ethiopia Demographic Health Survey data, using a weighted sample of 4771 women. Arc-GIS version 10.7 and SaTScan version 9.6 statistical software were used for the spatial analysis. To explore spatial variation and locate spatial clusters of missing BPCR messages, the Global Moran's I statistic and Bernoulli-based spatial scan (SaTScan) analysis were carried out, respectively. Hotspot (Getis-OrdGi*) analysis was conducted to identify Hotspots and Cold spotsof missing BPCR messages. Finally, spatial regression were carried out via ordinary least squares and geographically weighted regression to identify predictors of hotspots for missing BPCR messages.

The overall prevalence of missing BPCR messages in Ethiopia was found to be 44.0% (95%CI: 42.6, 45.4%), with significant spatial variation across regions (Moran's I = 0.218, p-value<0.001) and seven most likely significant SaTScan clusters. The vast majority of Somali, central Afar, and Gambella regions were identified as statistically significant hotspots. Living in the poorest wealth quintile, having only one ANC visit, lack of access to listening to the radio, facing difficulty in accessing money, not having a mobile phone, and being not covered by health insurance were identified as significant spatial predictors of missing BPCR messages.

The level of missing BPCR messages during pregnancy was found to be high in Ethiopia, with significant local variation. As a result, policymakers at the national level and local planners should develop strategies and initiatives that enhance women's economic capacities, health-seeking behavior, and media exposure. Furthermore, the regional authorities should focus on strategies that promote universal health coverage through enrolling citizens in health insurance schemes.