Causal Analysis of Physiological Sleep Data Using Granger Causality and Score-Based Structure Learning

Understanding how the human body works during sleep and how this varies in the population is a task with significant implications for medicine. Polysomnographic studies, or sleep studies, are a common diagnostic method that produces a significant quantity of time-series sensor data. This study seeks to learn the causal structure from data from polysomnographic studies carried out on 600 adult volunteers in the United States. Two methods are used to learn the causal structure of these data: the well-established Granger causality and "DYNOTEARS", a modern approach that uses continuous optimisation to learn dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs). The results from the two methods are then compared. Both methods produce graphs that have a number of similarities, including the mutual causation between electrooculogram (EOG) and electroencephelogram (EEG) signals and between sleeping position and SpO2 (blood oxygen level). However, DYNOTEARS, unlike Granger causality, frequently finds a causal link to sleeping position from the other variables. Following the creation of these causal graphs, the relationship between the discovered causal structure and the characteristics of the participants is explored. It is found that there is an association between the waist size of a participant and whether a causal link is found between the electrocardiogram (ECG) measurement and the EOG and EEG measurements. It is concluded that a person's body shape appears to impact the relationship between their heart and brain during sleep and that Granger causality and DYNOTEARS can produce differing results on real-world data.