COVID-19 DEATHS AND VACCINATION IN NIGERIA: AN APPRAISAL

Some estimates indicates that by 2021 ending, more people as a share of the vulnerable population in Africa, Nigeria inclusive, have died than elsewhere due to late and inadequate vaccination. With the pandemic phase of high daily deaths formally declared over, COVID-19 deaths before and after vaccination commenced were compared to observe how vaccination impacted COVID-19 deaths.

COVID-19 cases, deaths and vaccination rates in World Health Organization databases up to 07 June 2023 and other variables of interest unavailable there but found in other open- sources were all extracted and examined. Case fatality rate (CFR) per 1,000 for the period prior to vaccination (CFR1) and the period after vaccination commenced (CFR2) was computed. Simple statistics were used in data analysis.

Between when the first case was documented and 05 June 2023, Nigeria recorded 3,155 COVID-19 deaths and majority (61.84%) occurred between 19 March 2020 and March 5, 2021 when vaccination commenced. COVID-19 deaths declined to 61.7% of pre-vaccination figure coinciding with vaccination that delivered partial, primary and booster rates of 39.94%, 33.86% and 5.97% respectively. The cumulative COVID-19 deaths by population size was 8.94/106 pre-vaccination while COVID-19 deaths in vaccination era added 5.510/106mortalities to the final mortality figure of 14. 44/106. The calculated CFR1 and CFR2 rebased were 1.24% and 1.04% respectively.

More COVID-19 deaths occurred before vaccination commenced than in over two years of ongoing vaccination.