Simulating CH₄ emissions from MSW landfills in China from 2003 to 2042 using IPCC and LandGEM models

Anaerobic landfills have long been the primary means of municipal solid waste (MSW) disposal in China. Landfills are the third largest emission source of methane (CH₄), which is the second most abundant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere and has a high greenhouse effect. To date, there have been no reliable model predictions of long-term CH₄ emissions from landfills in China. In this study, two general models, IPCC and LandGEM, were introduced to simulate CH₄ emissions from all landfills in China. By comparing the results of the Shuangkou landfill in Tianjin with the default and local parameters, the local parameters were fixed to simulate landfill CH₄ emissions in 31 regions over 40 years (2003-2042). The MSW landfills were obtained from statistical data for 18 years (2003-2020). The total emissions in China predicted by LandGEM and IPCC were 2.42 E+07 Mg and 2.36 E+07 Mg, respectively. These data provide a reliable reference for determining the long-term CH4 emissions from landfills in China.