Evaluation of observation impact on the meteorological forecasts associated with heat wave in 2018 over East Asia...

Heat waves are meteorological disasters that inflict damage on public health and societal systems over extensive areas. The frequency and intensity of heat waves are increasing in many regions worldwide. However, insufficient research has been conducted to reduce forecast errors for heat waves in terms of short-range predictions. In this study, observing system experiments were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting model and a three-dimensional variational data assimilation (DA), and the effects of observations used for DA on forecast errors for meteorological variables (i.e., upper atmospheric geopotential height, upper temperature, upper wind, and near-surface 2-m temperature) associated with heat wave were analyzed. As the forecast time increased, the 200 and 500 hPa geopotential heights in East Asia and the 2-m temperatures around Korea, Japan, and eastern China tended to be underestimated. All observations used for DA reduced the forecast errors for the meteorological variables associated with heat wave. Upper atmospheric observations (i.e., Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A), aircraft, atmospheric motion vector, and radiosonde) played a more significant role in reducing forecast errors than near-surface observations. Among the upper atmospheric observations, AMSU-A had the greatest impact on reducing underestimation in forecasts for 200 and 500 hPa geopotential heights and the second greatest impact on 2-m temperature. The contraction of Tibetan high area at 200 hPa and Northern Pacific high area at 500 hPa in the experiments without using specific observations, compared to the analysis from the experiment using all observations, caused the deflection of the upper winds clockwise through the geostrophic relationship. Radiosonde observations had the greatest impact on reducing forecast errors of 2-m temperatures. Therefore, upper atmospheric observations are important for reducing errors in heat wave simulations in East Asia. The results of this study could help in designing an optimal observing system that reduces heat wave forecast errors in East Asia.