Conditional survival probability of distant-metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma: A population-based study

Area of Science:

• Oncology
• Biostatistics
• Cancer Research

Background:

• Prognosis for distant metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) can improve after initial survival.
• Conditional survival (CS) offers dynamic survival probability assessment, unlike traditional methods.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate conditional survival (CS) in patients with distant metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Main Methods:

• Utilized Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (2010-2015) for distant metastatic HCC patients.
• Employed Cox regression and competing risk models to identify overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) risk factors.
• Constructed nomograms to predict CS, using standardized difference to assess subgroup survival variations.

Main Results:

• Identified risk factors for OS and CSS including AFP expression, advanced T/N stage, non-surgical/chemotherapy/radiotherapy, and lung metastasis.
• Observed increasing CS rates over time, contrasting with decreasing actual survival rates.
• Demonstrated dynamic influence of factors like chemotherapy, radiotherapy, lung metastasis, age, and gender on survival predictions.

Conclusions:

• Conditional survival (CS) for distant metastatic HCC patients significantly increases post-diagnosis.
• Nomograms incorporating dynamic risk factors provide more accurate, time-specific survival predictions for HCC patients.