Early Prediction of Wound Healing Outcome Based on Chronic Wound Registry Database

Chronic wounds cause a number of unnecessary amputations due to a delay in proper treatment. To expedite timely treatment, this paper presents an algorithm which uses a logistic regression classifier to predict whether the wound will heal or not within a specified time. The prediction is made at three time-points: one month, three months, and six months from the first visit of the patient to the healthcare facility. This prediction is made using a systematically collected chronic wound registry and is based entirely on data collected during patients' first visit. The algorithm achieves an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.75, 0.72, and 0.71 for the prediction at the three time-points, respectively.Clinical relevance- Using the proposed prediction model, the clinicians will have an early estimate of the time taken to heal thereby providing appropriate treatments. We hope this will ensure timely treatments and reduce the number of unnecessary amputations.