Related Experiment Video
Updated: Jul 8, 2025

A Method of Trigonometric Modelling of Seasonal Variation Demonstrated with Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Data
Published on: December 9, 2015
Multistability and chaos in SEIRS epidemic model with a periodic time-dependent transmission rate
Eduardo L Brugnago1, Enrique C Gabrick2, Kelly C Iarosz1,3,4
1Physics Institute, University of São Paulo, 05508-090 São Paulo, SP, Brazil.
Abstract:
In this work, we study the dynamics of a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-susceptible epidemic model with a periodic time-dependent transmission rate. Emphasizing the influence of the seasonality frequency on the system dynamics, we analyze the largest Lyapunov exponent along parameter planes finding large chaotic regions. Furthermore, in some ranges, there are shrimp-like periodic structures. We highlight the system multistability, identifying the coexistence of periodic orbits for the same parameter values, with the infections maximum distinguishing by up one order of magnitude, depending only on the initial conditions. In this case, the basins of attraction have self-similarity. Parametric configurations, for which both periodic and non-periodic orbits occur, cover 13.20% of the evaluated range. We also identified the coexistence of periodic and chaotic attractors with different maxima of infectious cases, where the periodic scenario peak reaches approximately 50% higher than the chaotic one.
More Related Videos
12:21A Mouse Model for the Transition of Streptococcus pneumoniae from Colonizer to Pathogen upon Viral Co-Infection Recapitulates Age-Exacerbated Illness
Published on: September 28, 2022
05:33A Model for Epilepsy of Infectious Etiology using Theiler's Murine Encephalomyelitis Virus
Published on: June 23, 2022
Related Concept Videos
Steps in Outbreak Investigation
Parametric Survival Analysis: Weibull and Exponential Methods
Weibull Distribution
The Weibull distribution is a flexible model used in parametric survival analysis. It can handle both increasing and decreasing hazard rates, depending on its shape parameter...
Multimachine Stability
In analyzing the system, the nodal equations represent the relationship between bus voltages, machine voltages, and machine currents. The nodal equation is given by:
Classification of Systems-II
Viral Recombination
Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Individual and Population Analysis