Trade-offs between cold protection and air pollution-induced mortality of China's heating policy

The winter heating policy in northern China was designed to safeguard households from the harsh subfreezing temperatures. However, it has inadvertently resulted in seasonal spikes in air pollution levels because of the reliance on coal as an energy source. While the loss of life years attributable to mortality from air pollution caused by winter heating has been estimated, the beneficial effect of protection from cold temperatures has not been assessed, primarily due to a lack of individual-level data linking these variables. Our study aims to address this research gap. We provide individual-level empirical evidence that quantifies the impact of protection from cold temperatures and air pollution on mortality, studying 5,334 older adults living around the Huai River during the period between 2000 and 2018. Our adjusted Cox-proportional hazard models show that winter heating was associated with a 22% lower mortality rate (95% CI: 16-28%). Individuals residing in areas without access to winter heating are subjected to heightened mortality risks during periods of cold temperatures. The protective effect is offset by a 27.8% rise attributed to elevated PM_2.5 levels. Our results imply that the equilibrium between the effects of these two factors is achieved when PM_2.5 concentration exceeds 24.3 µg/m³ (95% CI: 18.4-30.2). Our research suggests that while the existing winter heating policy significantly mitigates winter mortality by lessening the detrimental effects of cold temperatures, future air pollution reduction could provide further health benefits.