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Learning to Mitigate Epidemic Risks: A Dynamic Population Game Approach.

Ashish R Hota1, Urmee Maitra1, Ezzat Elokda2

  • 1Department of Electrical Engineering, IIT Kharagpur, Kharagpur, West Bengal 721302 India.

Dynamic Games and Applications
|December 15, 2023
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study models epidemic behavior using a dynamic population game, revealing how individuals balance vaccination, testing, and social activity. It explores intervention impacts on disease spread and vaccination uptake.

Keywords:
Dynamic population gameEpidemic mitigationPerturbed best response dynamicsTestingVaccination

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Game Theory
  • Mathematical Modeling

Background:

  • Infectious diseases necessitate understanding population behavior and intervention effectiveness.
  • Dynamic population games offer a framework to model individual choices during epidemics.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a dynamic population game model for epidemic scenarios.
  • To analyze individual decision-making regarding vaccination, testing, and social activity.
  • To evaluate the impact of public health interventions on disease dynamics.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a dynamic population game model with five infection states (susceptible, asymptomatic, symptomatic, recovered, unknowingly recovered).
  • Defined agent best response to maximize long-run discounted expected reward.
  • Analyzed stationary Nash equilibrium and transient evolution using evolutionary learning dynamics.

Main Results:

  • Demonstrated the existence of a stationary Nash equilibrium in the population game.
  • Showcased how individuals weigh vaccination, testing, and social activity trade-offs.
  • Illustrated the effects of intervention strategies, like social distancing, on vaccination and infection rates.

Conclusions:

  • The model provides insights into individual risk-benefit analysis during epidemics.
  • Intervention strategies significantly influence vaccination uptake and infection prevalence.
  • Dynamic population games are valuable for understanding and managing infectious disease outbreaks.