Driving forces of Antarctic krill abundance
Alexey Ryabov1,2,3, Uta Berger2, Bernd Blasius3,4
1Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Section Polar Biological Oceanography, Am Handelshafen 12, D-27570 Bremerhaven, Germany.
None:
Antarctic krill, crucial to the Southern Ocean ecosystem and a vital fisheries resource, is endangered by climate change. Identifying drivers of krill biomass is therefore essential for determining catch limits and designating protection zones. We present a modeling approach to pinpointing effects of sea surface temperature, ice cover, chlorophyll levels, climate indices, and intraspecific competition. Our study reveals that larval recruitment is driven by both competition among age classes and chlorophyll levels. In addition, while milder ice and temperature in spring and summer favor reproduction and early larval survival, both larvae and juveniles strongly benefit from heavier ice and colder temperatures in winter. We conclude that omitting top-down control of resources by krill is only acceptable for retrospective or single-year prognostic models that use field chlorophyll data but that incorporating intraspecific competition is essential for longer-term forecasts. Our findings can guide future krill modeling strategies, reinforcing the sustainability of this keystone species.
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