Prognostic factors for survival in surgically treated aortic regurgitation

Aortic valve replacement was performed for 'pure' aortic regurgitation on 118 patients in a 5 1/2-year period ending in January 1983. In an analysis of prognostic factors, 12 variables were considered. The long-term survival rate was significantly greater in men than in women. Other significant factors were the relative heart volume, left ventricular systolic pressure and size of the implanted valve. A multivariate analysis with the Cox regression model, using the pool of variables simultaneously, showed primary predictive factors independently affecting survival to be left ventricular systolic pressure and size of the implanted valve. Based on this model, a patient-specific survival forecast was constructed.