Which tumour factors preclude organ preservation in patients with rectal cancer?

cT3cdT4, cN2, mesorectal nodes > 8 mm, clinically positive lateral nodes, extramural vascular invasion (EMVI) and mesorectal fascia threatening (MRF+) have been utilized as exclusion criteria in several studies on the watch-and-wait (w&w) strategy. Here, our aim was to validate these criteria through a post hoc analysis of two pooled prospective studies on w&w following routine radio(chemo)therapy.

A review of baseline magnetic resonance imaging was performed in a subgroup of 223 patients treated at a single institution. Of these, 17.9 % started w&w, 12.6 % achieved clinical complete response (cCR) and 9.0 % sustained cCR during median follow-up of 54 months.

The multivariable logistic analysis showed that the proportion of circumferential bowel involvement and EMVI significantly influenced the chance of sustained cCR; odds ratios were 0.063 (95 % confidence interval [CI] 0.008-0.489, p = 0.008), and 0.109 (95 % CI 0.014-0.850, p = 0.034), respectively. Sustained cCR was observed in none of the 57 patients with 90 %-100 % circumferential bowel involvement and in only one of the 89 patients with EMVI. In contrast, cT3cdT4, cN2, mesorectal nodes > 8 mm, clinically positive lateral nodes or MRF+ were not independently associated with sustained cCR. Among the subgroups of patients with these features but without (near-)circular tumour or EMVI+, sustained cCR was observed in 12 %-25 % of patients.

Sustained cCR after routine preoperative radio(chemo)therapy is unlikely in patients with (near-)circular tumour or EMVI, whereas patients with cT3cdT4, cN2, mesorectal nodes > 8 mm, clinically positive lateral nodes and MRF+ should not be denied w&w.