Net-zero aviation: Transition barriers and radical climate policy design implications

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Transportation Studies
• Economics

Background:

• Decarbonizing air transport is crucial but faces numerous 'transition barriers'.
• Limited attention has been given to the complexities hindering net-zero aviation goals.
• These barriers span mitigation, management, technology, fuel, finance, and governance.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify and analyze barriers to air transport decarbonization.
• To assess the financial viability of the aviation sector for funding the transition.
• To develop and evaluate policy scenarios for achieving net-zero aviation.

Main Methods:

• Identification and categorization of 40 transition barriers.
• Analysis of global aviation system's growth, revenue, and profitability (1978-2022).
• Development and simulation of four radical policy scenarios for future air transport.

Main Results:

• Global aviation generated marginal profits (US$0.94/passenger) between 1978-2022.
• The sector's low profitability (US$82 billion total) is insufficient to finance the estimated US$0.5-2.1 trillion fuel transition cost.
• All four policy scenarios, incorporating limitations like carbon taxes or fuel mandates, showed more reliable net-zero pathways than the status quo growth model.

Conclusions:

• Significant financial and systemic barriers impede air transport decarbonization.
• The current airline business model is unlikely to fund the necessary fuel transition.
• Policy interventions are essential and more effective than relying on continued volume growth for achieving net-zero aviation.