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Can datasets from long-term biomonitoring programs detect climate change effects on stream benthos?
Robert C Bailey1, Trefor B Reynoldson1
1Ontario Tech University, Faculty of Science, Oshawa, Ontario, Canada.
Science Progress
|December 18, 2023
Summary
Long-term monitoring of British Columbia stream ecosystems did not clearly detect climate change effects. Sampling effort, not temporal trends, primarily influenced diversity, suggesting current methods need improvement for climate change detection.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Environmental Science
- Climate Change Research
Background:
- Long-term monitoring programs are crucial for understanding environmental changes.
- Detecting climate change impacts on aquatic ecosystems is a global scientific priority.
- British Columbia's diverse stream ecosystems provide valuable case studies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the efficacy of existing monitoring programs in detecting climate change effects on British Columbia stream ecosystems.
- To identify limitations in current sampling designs and protocols for climate change impact assessment.
- To propose recommendations for improving future monitoring strategies.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of long-term ecological datasets from four British Columbia regions: Fraser River Basin, BC North Coast, Columbia River Basin, and Vancouver Island.
- Examination of trends in alpha diversity and community structure over specified monitoring periods (1994-2021).
- Application of Reference Condition Approach predictive modeling to define faunally similar site groups.
Main Results:
- Alpha diversity trends varied across regions, with increases in Fraser River and Vancouver Island, a decrease on the BC North Coast, and modest increases in the Columbia River Basin.
- Diversity patterns were predominantly driven by sampling effort rather than temporal climate change trends.
- Few site groups (3/21) and reference sites (1/15) showed directional community changes or potential climate change responses.
Conclusions:
- Current monitoring programs in British Columbia streams face challenges in clearly detecting climate change effects.
- Factors such as the magnitude of climate change effects relative to other stressors, insufficient monitoring duration, and inadequate sampling design limit detection.
- Recommendations include annual resampling of reference sites, detailed environmental and human impact analyses, and advanced benthic community characterization (e.g., eDNA).
