Drivers and decoupling analysis of carbon emissions in the non-ferrous metal industry-evidence from 28 provinces in China

Emissions from the non-ferrous metal industry are a major source of carbon emissions in China. Understanding the decoupling of carbon emissions from the non-ferrous metal industry and its influencing factors is crucial for China to achieve its "double carbon" goal. Here, we applied the Tapio decoupling model to measure the decoupling status and developmental trends of carbon output and emissions of the non-ferrous metal industry in China. The panel interaction fixed effects model is used to empirically analyze the influencing factors of carbon emissions in China's non-ferrous metal industry. The results show that carbon emissions from China's non-ferrous metal industry have experienced three main states: strong decoupling, growth connection, and negative growth decoupling. The carbon emissions of the non-ferrous metal industry in some eastern and central provinces from 2000 to 2004 were in a negative decoupling state. Most provinces in the western and central regions were either in a strong or weak decoupling state based on the developmental trend of the decoupling state of carbon emissions. However, from 2015 to 2019, the decoupling status of carbon emissions in most provinces in western and central China had a significantly negative, weakly negative, or a negative growth decoupling status. Energy structure, energy intensity, cost, and non-ferrous metal production all have a positive driving effect on carbon emissions in the non-ferrous metal industry. Production had a mitigating effect on carbon emissions in the non-ferrous metal industry between 2010-2014 in the eastern region of China. From the results of our study, we propose policy recommendations to promote a strong decoupling of carbon emissions from the non-ferrous metal industry by improving energy structure, reducing energy intensity, and optimizing production capacity.