Comparison of Three Prediction Models for Predicting Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in China

To predict the future number of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in China and compare the three prediction models.

A generalized additive model (GAM), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and curve-fitting method were used to fit and predict the number of patients with COPD in China. Data on the number of patients with COPD in China from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. The coefficient of determination (R²), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean squared error (RMSE), relative error of prediction, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) were used to evaluate and compare the fitting effect, prediction effect, and reliability of the three models.

The GAM, ARIMA, and curve-fitting methods could predict future trends in COPD in China. The performance of the GAM is the best among the three models, whereas the curve fitting method is the worst, and the ARIMA (0,1,2) model is in between. The prediction results of the three models showed that the number of patients with COPD in China is expected to increase from 2020 to 2025.

GAM and AIRMA models are recommended for predicting the future prevalence of COPD in China. The number of patients with COPD in China is expected to increase in the next few years. The prevention and control of COPD in China still needs to be strengthened. Using appropriate models to predict future trends in COPD will provide support for health policymakers.