New methodology to assess the excess burden of antibiotic resistance using country-specific parameters: a case study...

Antimicrobial resistant (AMR) infections are a major public health problem and the burden on population level is not yet clear. We developed a method to calculate the excess burden of resistance which uses country-specific parameter estimates and surveillance data to compare the mortality and morbidity due to resistant infection against a counterfactual (the expected burden if infection was antimicrobial susceptible). We illustrate this approach by estimating the excess burden for AMR (defined as having tested positive for extended-spectrum beta-lactamases) urinary tract infections (UTIs) caused by E. coli in the Netherlands in 2018, which has a relatively low prevalence of AMR E. coli, and in Italy in 2016, which has a relatively high prevalence.

Excess burden was estimated using the incidence-based disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) measure. Incidence of AMR E. coli UTI in the Netherlands was derived from ISIS-AR, a national surveillance system that includes tested healthcare and community isolates, and the incidence in Italy was estimated using data reported in the literature. A systematic literature review was conducted to find country-specific parameter estimates for disability duration, risks of progression to bacteraemia and mortality.

The annual excess burden of AMR E. coli UTI was estimated at 3.89 and 99.27 DALY/100 0000 population and 39 and 2786 excess deaths for the Netherlands and Italy, respectively.

For the first time, we use country-specific and pathogen-specific parameters to estimate the excess burden of resistant infections. Given the large difference in excess burden due to resistance estimated for Italy and for the Netherlands, we emphasise the importance of using country-specific parameters describing the incidence and disease progression following AMR and susceptible infections that are pathogen specific, and unfortunately currently difficult to locate.