Forecasting individual exercise sweat losses from forecast air temperature and energy expenditure

Recent success in predicting individual sweat losses from air temperature and energy expenditure measurements suggests a potential for forecasting individual sweat losses for future combinations of environment and exercise. The purpose of this study is to determine the plausibility of accurately forecasting exercise sweat losses from meteorological air temperature forecasts and individual running energy expenditure forecasts. The potential impact on plasma sodium is also estimated when setting drinking rates equal to forecast sweat losses.

Individual exercise sweat losses (equated to water needs) and energy expended while running were measured in 33 participants along with air temperature and compared with forecasts of the same. Forecast inputs were used in a web app to forecast exercise sweat losses for comparison with observed values. The bias between forecast and observed exercise sweat losses was used to calculate the potential drinking impact on plasma sodium.

The concordance correlation coefficient between forecast and observed values was 0.95, 0.96, and 0.91 for air temperature, energy expenditure, and exercise sweat losses, respectively, indicating excellent agreement and no significant differences observed via t-test. Perfect matching of water intake to sweat losses would lower plasma sodium concentrations from 140 to 138 mmol/L; calculations using the 95% limits of agreement for bias showed that drinking according to forecast exercise sweat losses would alter plasma sodium concentrations from 140 to between 136 and 141 mmol/L.

The outcomes support the strong potential for accurately forecasting exercise sweat losses from commonly available meteorological air temperature forecasts and energy expenditure from forecast running distance.