Evaluating a mass balance model for soil trace metals using the historical data from the King's Kitchen Garden...

The mass balance of reconstituted Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn fluxes from 1683 to 2021 was compared to the current levels of the soil used only for vegetable production in the King's Kitchen Garden in Versailles (France). This comparison was made on the basis of 4 scenarios of organic matter application in the 18th and 19th centuries and by an uncertainty analysis over the entire period. The topsoil contamination falls within that of French kitchen gardens. Modelling of past fluxes predicted the correct trend (an increase) and order of magnitude of the soil metal contents. It produced a relatively accurate evaluation of the Cu and Zn contents. The model underestimated the Pb contents by about 80%, revealing a large and unknown source of soil contamination by this metal. The calculation overestimated the current Cd levels by about 100%, probably due to various biases, for example on atmospheric fallout or the composition of organic amendments. This assessment shows that modelling the mass balance of trace metal fluxes can be used to predict the long-term trend in the levels of these elements in cultivated soils, providing the input data are chosen according to realistic scenarios.