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Prior beliefs and the interpretation of scientific results
1School of Psychological Science, The University of Newcastle, Callaghan, New South Wales, Australia.
Abstract:
How do prior beliefs affect the interpretation of scientific results? I discuss a hypothetical scenario where researchers publish results that could either support a theory they believe in, or refute that theory, and ask if the two instances carry the same weight. More colloquially, I ask if we should overweigh scientific results supporting a given theory and reported by a researcher, or a team, that initially did not support that theory. I illustrate the challenge using two examples from psychology: evidence accumulation models, and extra sensory perception.
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