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A sensitivity analysis for temporal bias in cross-sectional mediation.
A R Georgeson1, Diana Alvarez-Bartolo1, David P MacKinnon1
1Department of Psychology, Arizona State University.
Psychological Methods
|December 21, 2023
Summary
Cross-sectional mediation analysis can yield biased results. This study introduces a sensitivity analysis to assess potential temporal bias, improving the principled use of cross-sectional mediation models when longitudinal data is unavailable.
Area of Science:
- Methodology in Social Sciences
- Statistical Modeling
- Psychological Research
Background:
- Cross-sectional mediation analyses are widely used but known to produce biased parameter estimates.
- Methodological concerns regarding temporal precedence in mediation have persisted for over 30 years.
- Despite limitations, cross-sectional mediation models are sometimes the only feasible analytic approach.
Purpose of the Study:
- To propose a novel sensitivity analysis procedure for cross-sectional mediation analysis.
- To guide researchers in the principled application of cross-sectional mediation models.
- To mitigate temporal bias issues inherent in cross-sectional designs.
Main Methods:
- Development of a sensitivity analysis procedure inspired by two-wave longitudinal mediation models.
- Utilization of phantom variables for baseline data in the proposed model.
- Analysis of cross-lagged, autoregressive, and baseline correlations to identify conditions of divergence between cross-sectional and longitudinal conclusions.
Main Results:
- Sensitivity analysis can identify longitudinal conditions where cross-sectional conclusions significantly differ.
- Differences in the b-path's sign and effect size are most pronounced with small cross-sectional effect sizes and similar autoregressive/cross-lagged correlations.
- The procedure demonstrated the ability to recover actual longitudinal effect sizes when provided with appropriate input parameters.
Conclusions:
- The proposed sensitivity analysis offers a valuable tool for assessing temporal bias in cross-sectional mediation.
- Routine application of this sensitivity analysis can enhance the interpretation of mediation findings.
- While not a substitute for longitudinal data, the procedure promotes more rigorous use of cross-sectional mediation analysis.
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