Building the U.S. COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness program: Past successes and future directions

COVID-19 vaccines were originally authorized in the United States in December 2020 on the basis of safety, immunogenicity, and clinical efficacy data from randomized controlled trials (RCTs). However, real-world vaccine effectiveness (VE) data are necessary to provide information on how the vaccines work in populations not included in the RCTs (e.g., nursing home residents), against new SARS-CoV-2 variants, with increasing time since vaccination, and in populations with increasing levels of prior infection. The goal of CDC's COVID-19 VE program is to provide timely and robust data to support ongoing policy decisions and implementation of vaccination and includes VE platforms to study the spectrum of illness, from infection to critical illness. Challenges to estimating VE include accurate ascertainment of vaccination history, outcome status, changing rates of prior infection, emergence of new variants, and appropriate interpretation of absolute and relative VE measures. CDC COVID-19 VE platforms have played a pivotal role in numerous vaccine policy decisions since 2021 and will continue to play a key role in future decisions as the vaccine program moves from an emergency response to a routine schedule.