Multistate Competing Risk Analysis of Transition Back to the Community Among Long-Term Care Home (LTC) Destined...

The demand for long-term care in community and facilitybased settings in Canada is expected to increase with population growth. The Toronto Grace Health Center piloted an intervention program that aims to support return to the community of acute hospital patients designated for LTC placement. We investigated whether this program was effective in transitioning the program patients back to their homes in the community and the factors associated with transitioning patients to different destinations.

We performed a competing risk multi-state analysis of 111 patients enrolled into the Harbour Light (HL) transitional unit program between January 2020 and June 2023.

At the time of the study, 92 enrolled patients had been discharged and of those these, 48.9% (45) were successfully transitioned back to their private home in the community. The remaining 51.1% (46) were discharged to other destinations. Being a female was the only positive predictor of transitioning back home. Higher CPS scores (HR 0.53, 95% CI 0.31-0.88), PADDRS scale of 1+, and higher ADL Hierarchy scale, strongly predicted lower odds of transitioning back to the community.

Within the context of rising LTC bed demand and lengthy waiting time in Canada, with appropriate measures, this program successfully transitioned LTC home bound persons back to their homes. If replicable on a large scale, this could provide short and long-term solution to LTC bed demand in Canada.