Explaining Male Sex Offender Recidivism: Accounting for Differences in Correctional Supervision

Contrary to public opinion, empirical studies have consistently shown that persons convicted of a sexual offense (PCSO) are less likely to recidivate with a general offense. While researchers often point toward the surreptitiousness of sexual offending to explain low rates of recidivism, this paper tests a novel explanation: SOs recidivate at lower rates than persons convicted of a non-sexual offense (PCNSO) because they are more often revoked to prison before they are able to commit a new crime, perhaps owing to more restrictive post-release supervision guidelines.

Using a sample of 196,468 unique male releases, the difference in general and sexual recidivism between PCSO (n = 29,420) and PCNSO was assessed through survival analyses (Cox regression models).

Results demonstrated that PCSO were significantly less likely to be reconvicted for a general crime, but more likely for a sex offense. They were also more likely to be reincarcerated due to a revocation without a new sentence. Accounting for revocations, the difference in reconviction risk lessens between the groups but does not disappear.

This analysis provides evidence that differences in community supervision are contributing to the difference in recidivism rates between PCSO and PCNSO. Implications and future research are discussed.