Ambient temperature variations and AIDS-related mortality: A time-stratified case-crossover study in 103 counties,...

Climate change, characterized by the steady ascent of global temperatures and the escalating unpredictability of climate patterns, poses multifaceted challenges to public health worldwide. However, vulnerable groups, particularly the population affected by HIV/AIDS, have received little attention.

We aimed to examine the impacts of temperature variations on AIDS-related mortality.

Data on individuals with HIV/AIDS were collected from the HIV/AIDS Comprehensive Response Information Management System between 2013 and 2019. Temperature variation metrics were constructed by diurnal temperature range (DTR), temperature changes between neighboring days (TCN), and temperature variability (TV_0-t). Time-stratified case-crossover design with conditional logistic regression models was used to investigate the associations between ambient temperature variations and AIDS-related mortality.

Each 1 °C elevated in DTR was linked with a 5.28 % [95 % confidence intervals (CIs): 1.61, 9.08] increment in AIDS-related mortality at a lag of 0-6 days. Stronger associations between DTR and AIDS-related mortality were observed in the married than in single, with corresponding excess ORs (%) of 5.33 (95 % CIs: 0.29, 10.62) versus 4.79 (95 % CIs: -0.50, 10.36) for 1 °C increased in DTR at lag 0-6 days. Additionally, we noticed the impact of DTR was more pronounced in the warm season, leading to a 7.32 % (95 % CIs: 0.57, 14.51) elevation in the risks of AIDS-related mortality for 1 °C increase in DTR at lag 0-6 days, while the effect value decreased to 5.16 % (95 % CIs: 0.71, 9.81) in the cold season.

Our findings indicated that DTR might be a significant risk factor for AIDS-related deaths among ambient temperature variation indicators, and underscored the importance of considering temperature variability in public health interventions aimed at mitigating this risk of AIDS-related mortality.