Relationship between Thyroid CT Density, Volume, and Future TSH Elevation: A 5-Year Follow-Up Study

This study aimed to explore the relationship between thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) elevation and the baseline computed tomography (CT) density and volume of the thyroid. We examined 86 cases with new-onset hypothyroidism (TSH > 4.5 IU/mL) and 1071 controls from a medical check-up database over 5 years. A deep learning-based thyroid segmentation method was used to assess CT density and volume. Statistical tests and logistic regression were employed to determine differences and odds ratios. Initially, the case group showed a higher CT density (89.8 vs. 81.7 Hounsfield units (HUs)) and smaller volume (13.0 vs. 15.3 mL) than those in the control group. For every +10 HU in CT density and -3 mL in volume, the odds of developing hypothyroidism increased by 1.40 and 1.35, respectively. Over the course of the study, the case group showed a notable CT density reduction (median: -8.9 HU), whereas the control group had a minor decrease (-2.9 HU). Thyroid volume remained relatively stable for both groups. Higher CT density and smaller thyroid volume at baseline are correlated with future TSH elevation. Over time, there was a substantial and minor decrease in CT density in the case and control groups, respectively. Thyroid volumes remained consistent in both cohorts.