Timing of elimination of hepatitis C virus in Canada's provinces

BACKGROUND: Infection with chronic hepatitis C virus is a global public health concern. A recent study concluded that Canada is on track to achieve hepatitis C elimination goals set by the World Health Organization if treatment levels are maintained. However, recently a falling temporal trend in treatments in Canada was observed, with most provinces seeing a decrease before the global coronavirus pandemic. This study assesses the timing of elimination of hepatitis C in the 10 provinces of Canada. METHODS: Previously published disease and economic burden model of hepatitis C infection was populated with the latest epidemiological and cost data for each Canadian province. Five scenarios were modelled: maintaining the status quo, decreasing diagnosis and treatment levels by 10% annually, decreasing diagnosis and treatment levels by 20% annually, increasing them by 10% annually, and assuming a scenario with no post-coronavirus pandemic recovery in treatment levels. Year of achieving hepatitis C elimination, necessary annual treatments for elimination, and associated disease and economic burden were determined for each province. RESULTS: If status quo is maintained, Manitoba, Ontario, and Québec are off track to achieve hepatitis C elimination by 2030 and would require 540, 7,700, and 2,800 annual treatments, respectively, to get on track. Timely elimination would save 170 lives and CAD $122.6 million in direct medical costs in these three provinces. CONCLUSIONS: Three of Canada's provinces-two of them the most populous in the country-are off track to achieve the hepatitis C elimination goal. Building frameworks and innovative approaches to prevention, testing, and treatment will be necessary to achieve this goal.