Methylated ctDNA Quantification: Noninvasive Approach to Monitoring Hepatocellular Carcinoma Burden

Noninvasive, precision monitoring of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treatment efficacy would greatly facilitate personalized therapy and improve patient outcomes. We hypothesize that quantifying methylated circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) can be used to effectively monitor HCC burden without the need for biopsy.

Blood samples were collected from 25 patients, 21 with HCC and 4 with benign liver masses, at various timepoints throughout the course of treatment at a high-volume academic medical center. Quantification of methylated ctDNA molecules assessed CpG sites on more than 550 preselected cancer-specific amplicons. The tumor methylation score (TMS) was calculated by measuring the difference between the amount of methylation in the plasma and buffy coat with a normal cutoff value of 120 or less.

Among 10 patients with surgical HCC (5 surgical resections and 5 liver transplants), TMS revealed a statistically significant, rapid postoperative decline in 9. One patient who had a persistently elevated TMS on postoperative day 1 was subsequently found to have had metastatic disease. Patients in the negative control cohort all had normal-range pre- and postoperative TMS. Preoperative TMS correlated moderately with tumor burden on pathology (Spearman r = 0.54) of surgical specimens. From 11 subjects undergoing systemic therapy or Y90 radioembolization, analysis of 16 time periods demonstrated that the change in TMS (ΔTMS) was better associated with tumor progression than the change in Δalpha-fetoprotein (area under the curve 0.800 and 0.783, respectively). A composite score combining ΔTMS and Δalpha-fetoprotein further improved performance for detecting tumor progression with an area under the curve of 0.892.

These findings indicate that ctDNA methylation scores can effectively evaluate changes in tumor burden without the need for tumor biopsy.