School Absenteeism as a Marker for Community COVID-19 Rates

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health
• Educational Studies

Background:

• Reliable community transmission rates for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are challenging due to widespread at-home testing.
• School absenteeism presents a potential indicator for broader community COVID-19 transmission dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate student absenteeism as a marker for community COVID-19 infection rates.
• To determine if the relationship between community COVID-19 levels and student absenteeism varied during the 2021-2022 academic year.

Main Methods:

• An observational study analyzed data from North Carolina K-12 schools during the 2021-2022 academic year.
• Data included severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) test results, student absenteeism, and public health data.
• Statistical analysis compared community COVID-19 infection rates with student absenteeism trends over time.

Main Results:

• A total of 500,192 students across 27 school districts were included in the analysis.
• Student absenteeism rates mirrored community COVID-19 infection rates throughout the academic year.
• A 1% increase in community COVID-19 infection was associated with a 1.68% rise in student absenteeism (P < .001).

Conclusions:

• Student absenteeism serves as a viable marker for community COVID-19 transmission, especially when testing is inconsistent.
• This finding is crucial for public health surveillance when official case counts may be underreported.