Regulation Mechanism for Designing Decarbonization Pathways in the Copper Industry Toward Carbon Neutrality

The transformation of the global power structure caused by the carbon neutrality goal will promote copper consumption. It is crucial to explore the decarbonization pathways of the copper industry to help fulfill greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. This study utilized material flow analysis and life cycle assessment methods to investigate 12 different subscenarios based on international trade, circular economy, technology evolution, and environmental market factors. Policy combination scenario is employed to reveal the mechanism of decarbonization. The results show that refined copper consumption in China is expected to increase by 62.3% in 2060 compared to 2020. The GHG emissions of China's copper industry will reach 9.1 million tonnes (Mt) CO₂e in 2060, technology evolution and environmental market are crucial for realizing carbon neutrality goal of this industry, accounting for 26.4 and 47.2% of emissions reductions, respectively, between 2020 and 2060. International trade and circular economy play important roles in the high-quality carbon peaking stage; however, imported copper and domestic secondary copper will constitute the basic supply of copper resources in China in the long run, and the comparative advantages of them will gradually weaken. Policy combination scenario can achieve the incentive synergy effect, with GHG reduced to 0.5 Mt CO₂e in 2060. The enhanced application of policies such as material substitution and carbon emission trading will further promote industry to achieve net-zero GHG emission. We suggest regulating the industry's structure based on the international systemic circulation pattern and accelerating the construction of a green circular chain in the short term to achieve sustainable copper supply and high-quality carbon peaking. Promoting a high-quality technology development strategy and enhancing the environmental markets are recommended in the long term to achieve carbon neutrality.